Outliers

Listings sitting >1σ from the within-filter mean, plus the strongest negative residuals from the multi-factor hedonic fit.

Best buys — price z-score (within filter)

Listings priced >1σ below the mean of their filter. Pure cross-section, no mileage/year control.

FilterListingPriceMilesz
Lamborghini Urus S 2023 Lamborghini Urus S AWD $193,599 48,220 -4.02 view ↗
Lamborghini Urus 2019 Lamborghini Urus 4WD $104,980 60,451 -3.71 view ↗
BMW M3 Competition xDrive (G80) 2022 BMW M3 Competition xDrive AWD $66,991 61,674 -3.41 view ↗
Lamborghini Urus Performante 2024 Lamborghini Urus Performante AWD $229,999 59,305 -3.31 view ↗
McLaren GT 2021 McLaren GT Coupe RWD $118,985 39,086 -3.11 view ↗
Ferrari 488 Spider 2017 Ferrari 488 Spider RWD $259,988 8,520 -3.06 view ↗
911 GT3 Coupe (992.2, wing) 2026 Porsche 911 GT3 Coupe RWD $295,066 1,916 -2.97 view ↗
Ferrari 488 Spider 2017 Ferrari 488 Spider RWD $265,500 19,220 -2.96 view ↗
McLaren 750S Spider 2025 McLaren 750S Spider RWD $309,995 18,841 -2.92 view ↗
911 GT3 Coupe (992.1, wing) 2022 Porsche 911 GT3 Coupe RWD $224,715 8,130 -2.81 view ↗
Ferrari Roma Spider 2025 Ferrari Roma Spider RWD $259,998 6,528 -2.77 view ↗
Lamborghini Urus Performante 2023 Lamborghini Urus Performante AWD $240,747 36,568 -2.75 view ↗
BMW M3 Competition xDrive (G80) 2022 BMW M3 Competition xDrive AWD $71,914 52,227 -2.61 view ↗
Ferrari 812 GTS 2021 Ferrari 812 GTS RWD $699,980 12,371 -2.56 view ↗
Ferrari 488 GTB 2018 Ferrari 488 GTB Coupe RWD $219,950 13,713 -2.55 view ↗
Ferrari SF90 Stradale 2021 Ferrari SF90 Stradale AWD $389,995 19,454 -2.54 view ↗
McLaren 750S Spider 2025 McLaren 750S Spider RWD $319,220 4,483 -2.49 view ↗
Cayenne GTS (9YA, 2022-2024) 2022 Porsche Cayenne GTS AWD $57,995 82,634 -2.49 view ↗
BMW M3 (G80, RWD) 2021 BMW M3 RWD $58,680 62,230 -2.44 view ↗
BMW M3 (G80, RWD) 2021 BMW M3 RWD $58,695 54,585 -2.43 view ↗
Ferrari Portofino M 2022 Ferrari Portofino M RWD $219,800 17,833 -2.43 view ↗
BMW M3 (G80, RWD) 2021 BMW M3 Competition RWD $58,950 85,569 -2.4 view ↗
Mercedes-AMG G63 (W463A pre-facelift, 2019-2024) 2019 Mercedes-Benz G-Class AMG G 63 4MATIC $98,500 88,972 -2.38 view ↗
Ferrari California T 2015 Ferrari California T Roadster $78,000 89,619 -2.37 view ↗
Lamborghini Urus Performante 2023 Lamborghini Urus Performante AWD $247,990 35,771 -2.37 view ↗
BMW M3 Competition xDrive (G80) 2022 BMW M3 Competition xDrive AWD $73,495 55,953 -2.36 view ↗
BMW M3 Competition xDrive (G80) 2023 BMW M3 Competition xDrive AWD $73,495 65,002 -2.36 view ↗
Ferrari 296 GTB 2024 Ferrari 296 GTB RWD $289,900 1,900 -2.36 view ↗
Ferrari F8 Tributo 2020 Ferrari F8 Tributo RWD $415,995 11,700 -2.34 view ↗
Ferrari 812 Superfast 2019 Ferrari 812 Superfast RWD $399,995 33,168 -2.33 view ↗

Hedonic best buys (year + miles + body + deal-rating controlled)

Largest negative residuals from the multi-factor regression — cars cheap relative to a fair-value estimate that already accounts for age, miles, body style, and CarGurus deal rating.

FilterListingPriceFairResidualz
Lamborghini Urus 2019 Lamborghini Urus 4WD $104,980 $157,700 −$52,700 -5.8 view ↗
Lamborghini Urus 2020 Lamborghini Urus AWD $140,475 $189,500 −$49,000 -5.39 view ↗
Mercedes-AMG G63 (W463A pre-facelift, 2019-2024) 2023 Mercedes-Benz G-Class AMG G 63 4MATIC $166,999 $188,800 −$21,800 -5.14 view ↗
Bentley Continental GTC (Mk2, 2011-2018) 2017 Bentley Continental GTC V8 AWD $30,250 $82,800 −$52,500 -4.58 view ↗
Bentley Bentayga (2023+ facelift) 2024 Bentley Bentayga Hybrid AWD $150,000 $207,800 −$57,800 -4.21 view ↗
Ferrari 488 GTB 2018 Ferrari 488 GTB Coupe RWD $219,950 $352,000 −$132,100 -4.15 view ↗
Ferrari 488 Spider 2017 Ferrari 488 Spider RWD $259,988 $411,100 −$151,200 -4.14 view ↗
Lamborghini Urus S 2023 Lamborghini Urus S AWD $227,999 $245,500 −$17,500 -3.66 view ↗
Aston Martin DBX 2024 Aston Martin DBX AWD $154,995 $200,000 −$45,000 -3.62 view ↗
McLaren Artura Coupe 2024 McLaren Artura RWD $178,826 $225,500 −$46,700 -3.62 view ↗
Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT 2025 Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT AWD $149,991 $182,700 −$32,800 -3.53 view ↗
Bentley Continental GTC (Mk2, 2011-2018) 2017 Bentley Continental GTC V8 AWD $55,500 $95,700 −$40,200 -3.5 view ↗
Mercedes-AMG G63 (W463A pre-facelift, 2019-2024) 2024 Mercedes-Benz G-Class AMG G 63 4MATIC $172,000 $186,800 −$14,800 -3.49 view ↗
Mercedes-AMG G63 (W463A pre-facelift, 2019-2024) 2023 Mercedes-Benz G-Class AMG G 63 4MATIC $139,700 $154,300 −$14,600 -3.46 view ↗
Aston Martin DBX 2024 Aston Martin DBX AWD $121,810 $162,000 −$40,200 -3.23 view ↗
911 GT3 Coupe (992.2, wing) 2026 Porsche 911 GT3 Coupe RWD $309,950 $343,500 −$33,500 -3.23 view ↗
Lamborghini Urus S 2023 Lamborghini Urus S AWD $193,599 $208,900 −$15,300 -3.19 view ↗
Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT 2025 Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT AWD $148,500 $178,100 −$29,600 -3.19 view ↗
McLaren 750S Spider 2025 McLaren 750S Spider RWD $319,220 $367,600 −$48,400 -3.13 view ↗
911 GT3 Coupe (992.2, wing) 2026 Porsche 911 GT3 Coupe RWD $295,066 $327,400 −$32,300 -3.11 view ↗
Bentley Bentayga (2023+ facelift) 2024 Bentley Bentayga Hybrid AWD $139,950 $182,300 −$42,400 -3.08 view ↗
Aston Martin DBX 2023 Aston Martin DBX AWD $134,995 $172,800 −$37,800 -3.04 view ↗
Bentley Continental GTC (Mk2, 2011-2018) 2014 Bentley Continental GTC V8 AWD $51,900 $86,500 −$34,600 -3.02 view ↗
Ferrari 458 Spider 2015 Ferrari 458 Italia Spider RWD $349,995 $601,300 −$251,300 -3.01 view ↗
Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2 (RWD) 2018 Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2 Spyder Convertible RWD $198,900 $227,200 −$28,300 -3 view ↗
Aston Martin DBX 2024 Aston Martin DBX AWD $149,990 $187,000 −$37,000 -2.98 view ↗
Bentley Continental GT (Mk3, 2018+) 2024 Bentley Continental GT Edition 8 AWD $212,995 $253,600 −$40,600 -2.95 view ↗
McLaren 720S Spider 2020 McLaren 720S Luxury Spider RWD $244,995 $280,100 −$35,100 -2.94 view ↗
Bentley Continental GTC (Mk2, 2011-2018) 2017 Bentley Continental GTC V8 S AWD $55,798 $89,100 −$33,300 -2.9 view ↗
Ferrari California 2012 Ferrari California Roadster $89,900 $111,800 −$21,900 -2.85 view ↗

Ambitious asks (price z-score > +1.0)

Listings priced well above the within-filter mean.

FilterListingPriceMilesz
Ferrari SF90 Spider 2022 Ferrari SF90 Spider AWD $1,200,000 514 6.11 view ↗
Bentley Continental GT (Mk2, 2011-2018) 2015 Bentley Continental GT GT3-R AWD $209,900 1,500 5.72 view ↗
McLaren 720S 2021 McLaren 720S $599,995 1,927 5.53 view ↗
911 GT2 RS (991.2, 2018-2019) 2019 Porsche 911 GT2 RS Coupe RWD $2,295,888 193 5.49 view ↗
Aston Martin DBS Superleggera 2021 Aston Martin DBS Superleggera Coupe RWD $649,999 999 5.07 view ↗
Ferrari 488 Spider 2018 Ferrari 488 Spider RWD $675,000 441 4.83 view ↗
Maserati MC20 Coupe 2025 Maserati MC20 RWD $365,975 — 4.59 view ↗
McLaren MP4-12C Coupe 2013 McLaren MP4-12C Base $229,914 842 4.49 view ↗
Lamborghini Revuelto 2024 Lamborghini Revuelto AWD $999,980 1,773 4.39 view ↗
Ferrari 458 Italia 2010 Ferrari 458 Italia Coupe RWD $1,345,888 4,580 4.26 view ↗
Ferrari SF90 Stradale 2023 Ferrari SF90 Stradale AWD $579,914 804 4.25 view ↗
Ferrari California T 2017 Ferrari California T Roadster $238,895 6,808 4.23 view ↗
Aston Martin Vanquish (classic, 2001-2018) 2018 Aston Martin Vanquish S Volante Convertible RWD $699,995 138 4.21 view ↗
Huracan STO 2024 Lamborghini Huracan STO Coupe RWD $1,995,900 226 3.86 view ↗
Lamborghini Gallardo 2010 Lamborghini Gallardo LP 570-4 Superleggera Coupe AWD $319,803 20,034 3.84 view ↗
Ferrari 296 GTS 2023 Ferrari 296 GTS RWD $569,000 876 3.7 view ↗
911 GT3 (991.2 wing, 2018-2019) 2018 Porsche 911 GT3 Coupe RWD $309,990 858 3.68 view ↗
Lamborghini Revuelto 2025 Lamborghini Revuelto AWD $950,995 — 3.67 view ↗
Ferrari 488 Pista 2020 Ferrari 488 Pista Coupe RWD $1,999,914 1,395 3.56 view ↗
911 GT3 RS (992.1, 2023-2024) 2024 Porsche 911 GT3 RS Coupe RWD $849,895 3,234 3.51 view ↗
Bentley Continental GT (Mk2, 2011-2018) 2015 Bentley Continental GT GT3-R AWD $155,200 12,146 3.47 view ↗
Ferrari 296 GTS 2025 Ferrari 296 GTS RWD $560,000 1,428 3.47 view ↗
Ferrari 812 GTS 2023 Ferrari 812 GTS Convertible RWD $1,299,996 2,049 3.47 view ↗
McLaren GT 2023 McLaren GT RWD $209,995 85 3.45 view ↗
Aston Martin Vantage (2018+) 2023 Aston Martin Vantage V12 Coupe RWD $299,999 1,105 3.36 view ↗
Lamborghini Huracan LP 610-4 Spyder 2015 Lamborghini Huracan LP 610-4 $389,990 37,753 3.35 view ↗
Bentley Continental GTC (Mk2, 2011-2018) 2016 Bentley Continental GTC W12 AWD $139,900 3,851 3.24 view ↗
911 GT3 Coupe (992.1, wing) 2022 Porsche 911 GT3 Coupe RWD $319,914 791 3.21 view ↗
Aston Martin Vanquish (2024+) 2026 Aston Martin Vanquish Volante RWD $519,800 4,068 3.17 view ↗
Mercedes-AMG G63 (W463A facelift, 2025+) 2027 Mercedes-Benz G-Class AMG G 63 4MATIC $265,000 153 3.15 view ↗